The uncertainty for China
As the world changes its positions and policies emerging new flexible muscles following the world financial crisis China has reacted to the situation? As always when it comes to this enigmatic country, the signals are mixed, and are not consistent. This also becomes clear, at least compares China are not really valid. The comparison must be made with any country, it would be with India. Not only the two neighboring countries, but also have huge populations, new markets, and until recently, shared religious values. Moreover, there is a mutual distrust still dormant border disputes, and completely independent of political systems. The similarities and differences between them are more than those who are aligned with China and America.
Position China to India is strange. Disputes arising from long before India became independent, and before the Communist Party was established in China still remains concerned the two countries as an itchy scab. The Game between Russia and Britain, Tibet and the use of a state of separation between the two superpowers, ultimately led to Tibet under the Communist regime, for the first time, a border war between China and India in 1962, and disputed borders of several years, although recently the two sides "agreed to disagree" on, have recently flared up again.
The use of veto by China in the Asian Development Bank, for deny India, for the first Once a loan for the development of Arunachal Pradesh is purely a political issue, and nothing to do with finance or development. China has not controlled the region, however, used his veto to deny India the funds to develop an area near the border, and in which China has rights. This is neither consistent nor a statesman.
Elsewhere, China's problems seem to stem from the difficulties the country faces today is managing himself as a State party. Make no mistake, this is not an easy thing to do and remain benign, are involved in development, economic progress and integration with the global community over the use of a system has never been attempted before. People forget May, while China seems to have been stable over the past three decades, the China social experience still unproven. Cracks can appear and - with rising unemployment, graduates leave, and local corruption fuels anger peoples, masses can quickly become out of control. This remains a problem with a single party, where people can vote not only a corrupt official or unpopular outside the office, and whose party apparatus broadly protects those who sin.
It remains a striking contrast to India, where national elections are held and relative peace, security and transparency. More than 670 million votes, while the newspapers of all political opinion to promote their candidates and contempt of others. The system is used courtesy of Infosys, is electronic and provides According to the founder of Infosys, Nandan Nilekani, "faster that the regulation that most Western stock markets. "China is meanwhile caught in a system that is patriarchal, but are not accountable to the people, simultaneously. These internal conflicts that will give the lines of their own fault. It is likely to worsen. The Chinese population is aging, which will provide greater emphasis on a social system that still does not cover all their citizens nationwide. As we age, welfare costs increase, the wages of workers must face its responsibilities aging families at home. Stress levels in the Chinese government in this system are enormous and not fully understood. The fact is that as experience in managing more than one billion people without giving them the right to vote or the right to challenge the system, China is a huge risk. There has never been before.
India, moreover, is a young population, and without state-mandated population control in place, there are many low-cost workers in the world in coming decades. The youngest populations have long recognized as major drivers of growth and consumption and India overtake China at this time in this regard. This will be the indigenous population, which begins to push the world economy, while China is experiencing a slowdown.
Indian democracy, while sometimes messy, is a system that can be absorbed by the population, and largely it is. Corrupt officials, if caught, surveillance face intense media, and are accountable to their constituents. If serious violations, government officials can go to jail. While this It is also true of China, the procedure is a closed process - after all, the party apparatus that is being tested not only the errant officer. Newspapers are prevented from reporting, and judges are "advised" not to hear the case. This is not stability. It is not sustainable.
In short, if I weigh the pros and cons of China and India is rising two economies, which is all the real issue. Maybe controversy, I would say it is India who wins. China me - and I lived for 16 years - is erratic, uncertain, and hit a glass ceiling in their development. I think it will be difficult to recover without major changes in government. Take for example the Chinese enterprises investing abroad. In addition to state enterprises, ensuring energy supplies and other vital resources for the country, Chinese firms are not free to invest abroad. You still must obtain permission from the government. This affects the ability of China to grow and develop their own race entrepreneurs can sell truly global brand in China. "This is in direct conflict with India, whose business - and companies - are developing mastodons world. Formula One is a good example. While China has made headlines in the organization of an annual race in Shanghai, is India, which has established a team, running with national colors and exposure to 17 races instead of one.
None of the scenarios I mentioned reasons for leaving China. In fact, I believe the possibilities to sell to domestic Chinese market better. But when it comes to strategy, the horrible term "Chindia" does not fit the bill. China and India need more special attention and understanding their differences and their evolution. In the longer term, Yet China is, in my mind seems uncertain apparently regained its role as focal point for the motor trade. The fingers are pointed, questions and is not used to it. Meanwhile, India continues to grow and be safer on the international stage. I will continue to invest and develop the enterprises in China. But longer term, I also put my money and invest in India. A strategy of China only when it comes to global development is not enough.
About the Author
This article was written by Chris Devonshire-Ellis, for the China and
India business news
forum, 2point6billion.com. Chris also writes for the
Chinese business news
website, China-briefing.com, which is contributed to by the China tax and law firm, Dezan Shira & Associate
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